| Title: | SHORT RANGE WAVE FORECASTS USING ENSEMBLE WAVE PREDICTION SYSTEM |
| DOI No: | 10.1142/9789812701916_0080 |
| Source: | COASTAL ENGINEERING 2004 (pp 1009-1021)
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| Author(s): | NOBUHITO MORI
Department of Environmetal Urban Engineering, Osaka City University, 3-3-138 Sugumoto-Cho, Sumiyoshi-Ku, Osaka 558-8585, Japan
HIROMARU HIRAKUCHI
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), 1646 Abiko, Abiko 270-1194, Japan
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| Abstract: | An ensemble ocean wave prediction system is developed to predict wave fields for several days using a weather ensemble prediction system. The characteristics and validity of the ensemble ocean wave prediction system are discussed analyzing the results of numerical simulation. The predicted mean wave height by the ensemble ocean wave prediction system is highly correlated with analysis data and is slightly underestimated as forecast length becomes longer. The predicted wave height by the ensemble ocean wave prediction system is correlated with spread, scatter of ensemble member, as well as the wind and atmospheric pressure in the ensemble weather prediction. The value of spread is monotonically increased with the forecast length increased and it gives reliability of forecasts. |
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