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Title:PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON INDUCED HYDRAULIC BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR SUO-NADA BAY
DOI No:10.1142/9789812709554_0068
Source:COASTAL ENGINEERING 2006 (pp 791-801)
Author(s):E.N. Klaver
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

J.K. Vrijling
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

S.N. Jonkman
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

Rijkswaterstaat, Road and Hydraulic Engineering Institute, PO Box 5044, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

L.H. Holthuijsen
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

S. Takahashi
Port and Airport Research Institute, Nagase 3-1-1, Yokosuka 239-0826, Japan

H. Kawai
Port and Airport Research Institute, Nagase 3-1-1, Yokosuka 239-0826, Japan

Abstract:For risk-based design of flood defence systems it is necessary to know the probability of failure of the system. This can only be derived if the probability of occurrence of the loads on the flood defence is known. Hydraulic loads caused by typhoons such as water levels and wave characteristics are mutually dependent and this has to be included in their joint probability density functions. This paper describes a method to derive the dependent joint probability density functions of hydraulic loads resulting of typhoons for a bay in Japan. An example is given on how to apply the derived probability function of loads to the design and failure analysis of a flood defence.
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