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| Title: | RISK-BASED PREDICTIONS FOR SHIP UNDERKEEL CLEARANCE | |
| DOI No: | 10.1142/9789812709554_0072 | |
| Source: | COASTAL ENGINEERING 2006 (pp 834-846) | |
| Author(s): | Michael J. Briggs
U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199, USA Andrew L. Silver Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Seakeeping Department, 9500 Mac-Arthur Blvd., West Bethesda, MD 20817-5700, USA Leon E. Borgman Borgman Inc., 2526 Park Avenue, Laramie, WY, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes two new risk-based models for predicting ship underkeel clearance (UKC) in deep-draft entrance channels. In the first model, recurrence intervals are estimated for the number of years between accidents or groundings using Poison and Bernouilli probability distributions for ship arrivals and groundings. The second model predicts channel accessibility based on an acceptable level of risk for different wave, ship, and channel combinations by modeling the uncertainty in these parameters using Gaussian and Rayleigh distributions. Comparisons between both methods are presented. | |
| Full Text: | View full text in PDF format (1427KB) | |
| TOC: | Back to Table of Contents | |
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