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Title:Using Statistics to Determine the Effectiveness of Prescribed Burning
DOI No:10.1142/9789812772466_0006
Source:CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: APPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES (pp 73-88)
Author(s):Karen J. King
Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

Joanne Chapman
School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, UNSW @ ADFA, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia

Abstract:Prescribed burning is an important tool for managing landscapes for both ecological values and people and property protection. Although widely used, the long-term effectiveness of prescribed burning in meeting management objectives is often difficult to determine. Recent work is using a computer simulation model, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, to investigate the effectiveness of a range of prescribed burning treatments in reducing risks posed by unplanned fires using likelihood methods. Initial studies were conducted in the World Heritage Area in south-west Tasmania. This talk discusses the linking of ecological modelling and statistical methods in determining the effectiveness of a range of prescribed burning scenarios in meeting management objectives in this landscape, and the implications for future work.
Keywords:simulation modelling; FIRESCAPE; unplanned fire; prescribed burning; likelihood methods
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